Using mathematical and statistical models to understand disease transmission, evaluate interventions, and guide public health strategy in Africa — spanning HIV, TB, emerging infections, and non-communicable diseases.
What the Team
Investigates
Developing mathematical models of disease transmission to forecast epidemic trajectories, estimate burden, and evaluate the impact of public health interventions.
Using modelling to assess the effectiveness, cost-efficiency, and population-level impact of treatment, vaccination, and prevention programmes.
Integrating genomic sequence data with epidemiological models to reconstruct transmission chains and understand pathogen spread at population level.
Incorporating geographic, demographic, and social determinants into models to capture heterogeneity in disease burden and intervention response.
Modelling the intersection of infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases in African populations, particularly HIV/TB co-morbidity and metabolic conditions.
Training the next generation of African epidemiological modellers through workshops, short courses, fellowships, and postgraduate supervision.
From Data
to Policy
Integrating genomic, epidemiological, clinical, and social data from surveillance systems, cohorts, and partner health facilities.
Building mathematical and statistical models calibrated to local epidemiological context using Bayesian and frequentist frameworks.
Fitting models to observed data and validating against independent datasets to ensure reliability and generalisability.
Running intervention scenarios to project future disease burden and compare the impact of different public health strategies.
Communicating findings to health ministries, funders, and WHO to inform resource allocation, programme design, and epidemic response.
Diseases &
Health Priorities
Research &
Partner Network
Integrating whole-genome sequencing data into phylodynamic models to reconstruct transmission chains and outbreak origins.
Collaborating on data pipelines, dashboards, and analytical tools that feed epidemiological models with real-time surveillance data.
Providing modelling support to continental health bodies for epidemic preparedness, burden estimation, and intervention planning.
Translating modelling outputs into actionable policy recommendations for national HIV, TB, and epidemic response programmes.
Meet the
Team
